TOPIC HISTORY
Origins of the Conflict
The Syrian conflict started as an offshoot of the Arab Spring, a series of democratic uprisings that arose and spread independently across the arab world in 2011. The initial spark was caused by protests in the city of Deraa in March 2011, which dissented the arrest and torture of teenagers who painted revolutionary slogans on a school wall. Demonstrations broke out across the country, and protesters called for the release of political prisoners, an end to pervasive corruption and other broader civil rights. In late March, Assad’s government violated its promise not to use force against protesters, and opened fire on demonstrators in the south, killing as many as 60 people. Four days after the incident, Assad’s cabinet resigned; however, Assad remained in power and continued to use his power to disrupt protests. Assad began by deploying troops, but quickly escalated attacks by unleashing military tanks, armored vehicles and snipers on the city of Hama, an area historically known for its anti-government sentiment. About 1,700 were killed in Hama, and the brutality of Assad’s actions prompted international disapproval. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait removed their ambassadors from Damascus and in mid-August, Obama demanded that Assad resign, froze all Syrian assets held under U.S. jurisdiction and banned all U.S. citizens and corporations from conducting business with the Syrian government. Shortly thereafter, the UN released an official report accusing Syria of committing crimes against humanity.
This video offers a brief summary on the refugee crisis, but offers more detail regarding its consequences and why some countries (such as those in Europe) are choosing not to respond and help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvOnXh3NN9w
This video talks about the complexities of the Syrian Civil War in detail. It touches upon the Assad's actions, the proxy war developing between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and U.S. and ISIS involvement.
The Al-Assad Family
Hafez al-Assad, the father of current President of Syria Bashar al-Assad, is often credited as the architect of present day Syria. Using a network of military officials, Hafez was able to seize power in 1970, finally putting an end to decades of coups and counter-coups in Syria. To maintain his control, Hafez devised a system of divide and rule to the point where he alone held the state together. Hafez’s eldest son, Bassel, was trained to succeed his father, but Bassel was tragically killed in a car accident in 1994. As a result, Bashar al-Assad assumed power. When Bashar took over his father’s rule, he pushed many of his father’s peers aside and replaced them with his own urban elite.In recent years, the Assad family has been accused of corruption multiple times, for crimes such as embezzling funds and tax frauds. Additionally, Bashar al-Assad has always favored his own family for business ventures rather than other Syrian companies who were better equipped for the job. Consequently, the wealth of Assad’s family grew while the Syrian economy suffered.
Humanitarian Cost
The violence between Assad, rebel groups and ISIS has had one of the the most significant humanitarian impacts in recent history. Half of the country’s pre-war population (more than 11 million people) have been killed or forced to flee for their lives. Lebanon has taken in more than one million refugees, while Turkey has taken in more than 2 million. Jordan, Iraq and Egypt have also received hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians. Other Syrians risk their lives to travel to Europe, hoping to escape the horrors of their home country and obtain a new life. However, the harsh weather and travel conditions makes the voyage extremely dangerous, and many do not survive the journey.
In the last year and a half, the number of displaced refugees has increased by more than one million. Thousands of Syrians leave the country every day. Neighborhood bombings and the death of family members serve as powerful incentives to flee. To escape, families walk for miles through the night to avoid being shot by snipers, or being caught by warring parties such as ISIS who kill or kidnap young men to fight for their cause.
Summary:
1. Like many other middle-Eastern countries at the time, the Syrian conflict began because of the Arab Spring. Citizens wanted more accountability in the government and conducted massive protests to voice their opinion.
2. Assad called on his military and responded with increasing violence.
3. Because of fighting between Assad, rebel groups, foreign bombings and airstrikes, and ISIS, millions of Syrians have fled for their lives, putting immense pressure on bordering nations.
CURRENT SITUATION
The Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria
On Aug. 21, 2013, opposition groups accused the government of attacking rebel areas in Zamalka, Ein Terma, and Erbeen, suburbs east of Damascus, with chemical weapons. Gruesome images showed victims foaming at the mouth and twitching beside lines of covered corpses. The opposition said as many as 1,000 people died in the attack. Assad’s government denied it launched a chemical attack.
A month later, on Sept. 16, the UN confirmed in a report that the chemical agent sarin had been used near Damascus on Aug. 21. Damascus is the Syrian capital and its outskirts remain a key strategic area of control. While the regime has succeeded in using sieges and intensive air strike campaigns to negotiate truces with various armed groups in and around the city, fighting continues between government forces and opposition fighters.
The UN report said that “Chemical weapons have been used in the ongoing conflict between the parties in the Syrian Arab Republic, also against civilians, including children, on a relatively large scale. The environmental, chemical and medical samples we have collected provide clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent sarin were used.” The report did not explicitly indicate who was responsible for launching the attack, but it can be inferred that Assad is responsible due to the positioning of the rockets, which were fired from Mount Qasioun, an area in Damascus that protects Assad's presidential palaces.
Summary:
1. There is legitimate evidence that Assad and his military have used chemical weapons on civilians in the past.
Assad Re-elected in Controversial Election
Assad was re-elected to a third seven-year term in the presidential elections held on June 3, 2014, taking about 89% of the vote. However, votes were only cast in areas under government control. Because Assad’s secret police dominates and suppresses these areas, political opponents were unable to hold meetings and launch campaigns. Given this, and the fact that winning 90% of the popular vote is statistically improbable, President Obama and many other western leaders denounced the election as illegitimate.
Days after the election, Assad said he would grant amnesty to prisoners involved in the uprising who have been detained for “all crimes other than terrorism.” It was not clear when they would be released and if the declaration would apply to members of the opposition, who Assad has referred to as terrorists.
Syria handed over the last of its declared chemical weapons in late June 2014, just making the deadline set in September 2013. While the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons praised Syria for complying, especially during war time, it cautioned that Syria has yet to destroy its chemical weapon production facilities and there may still be undeclared weapons in the country. It is also investigating reports that Syria dropped bombs containing chlorine. While chlorine is not a banned substance, use of it as a weapon would violate the international chemical weapons treaty it signed in 2013.
Summary:
1. Assad rigged his election in order to maintain his power in Syria. It is evident that he will not step down unless he is forced to. Opposing political parties cannot respond because the Syrian secret police seeks to kill and destroy their supporters.
Syrian Civil War Ceasefires
In response to the suffering, several attempts have been made to negotiate ceasefires between the warring parties involved in the Syrian Civil War. Two ceasefires have been agreed upon in the past, but both failed dramatically. The first ceasefire, known as the Partial Ceasefire, occurred between February and July of 2016. It was prompted by peace talks in Munich, and facilitated by world powers such as United States and Russia. As a point of clarification, the ceasefires did not include attacks on UN-designated terrorist zones.
There was positive news from Russia in March 2016, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be extracting the “main part” of its military forces in Syria. Also in March, the Syrian government, with help from Russian and Iranian forces, successfully captured Palmyra from ISIL. Unfortunately, despite these advances, the ceasefire was violated by the Syrian government during a series of airstrikes in the country’s Aleppo province.
The second ceasefire only lasted a week, from September 12th to September 20th. Russia and U.S. played a major role in coordinating the ceasefire once again, with the intent of stopping the violence to plan a joint mission against ISIS and al-Nusra. However, because the ceasefire did not apply to terrorist targets, Russia was able to justify bombings conducted in rebel-held areas. Ultimately, the second ceasefire was even greater failure than the first, and the Syrian government continued to conduct airstrikes against civilians during this time. Other notable setbacks included a US-British strike aimed at ISIS soldiers killing 60 Syrian government soldiers instead, and the Russian destruction of of a Syrian humanitarian organization warehouse, killing 14 innocents and destroying 18 truckloads worth of food.
Summary:
1. While they are an ideal solution, ceasefires in the past have been relatively unsuccessful. They have been violated by the Syrian government, and ironically, some of the third parties who initially supported the ceasefire actually contributed to the violence.
Question to consider:
1. Is a third ceasefire possible? Or should more direct force be used?
Proxy War
A proxy war has multiple, slightly different definitions. Essentially, it is a conflict between two actors that do not directly engage against one another.
While the Syrian conflict is fundamentally between President Bashar al-Assad and his people, there are a number of outside states involved in the crisis. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, for example, support the rebel groups in opposition against Assad’s regime, while Iran backs Assad. The U.S. is also firmly against Assad and poured millions into training and arming rebel groups. Russia on the other hand, supports Assad and has bombed rebel groups, claiming they were “terrorists.” The Turks, meanwhile, have been using the unrest to settle old scores with the Kurds, who have been the most successful at fighting ISIS militants on the ground.
Summary:
1. The Syrian conflict is not solely between two opposing groups, but rather an assortment of countries, each with different geopolitical goals.
Question to consider:
1. Why do these countries support the groups they do? Who supports the Islamic State?
SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH
The history and current situation sections of this topic guide has offered only a synopsis. Before arriving at the conference, it is highly recommended that delegates read the following articles and answer the following questions.
Begin with this New York Times article which provides basic questions and answers regarding the crisis. It is a bit outdated, however, since the article was published on September 18, 2016:
Overview
-The Story of the Crisis: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868
-Brief Guide from the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/syrian-civil-war-guide-isis/410746/
Who is responsible for the refugee crisis?
-http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-assad-idUSKCN0RG0LX20150916
Possible Solutions?
-Remarks by Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/admin/hcspeeches/56fb8e449/high-level-meeting-global-responsibility-sharing-pathway-admission-syrian.html
-Amnesty International: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2015/10/eight-solutions-world-refugee-crisis/
