The UK's struggling dairy farmers are in the dark about their future if Brexit goes ahead. Leaving the EU means another threat to their dwindling income and no one is giving them the financial guarantees they need.
In rural Lancashire, 300 Friesian cows at Lune Valley Farm are waiting to be milked. Calmly chewing on fodder as they are connected to the machines, they watch any activity with their innate curiosity. Meanwhile, farmer Joe Towers, 24, is wondering what will happen after June 23, 2016 – the EU referendum. Uncertainty is commonplace in his industry; milk prices have fallen continuously, dropping by almost a third in two years. More than half of the UK's dairy farmers have gone out of business since 2002 and the country is running at a deficit in dairy trade. With a potential Brexit on the horizon, the sector is trying to prepare for what could be a seismic shift. Impartial information on the referendum is hard to find, with government divided and farming bodies staying silent, confusion reigns on the ground.
"Leaving the EU would be a massive shake up to the industry. There would be clear winners and losers."
"Dairy farmers are already struggling" says Joe, “we don't know what Brexit would bring – we need clarification in order to prepare”. Joe’s farm has been in his family for over fifty years, seeing the many changes to their industry; Brexit would be one of the biggest changes in those years. “Leaving the EU would be a massive shake up to the industry” says Joe, “Smaller farmers who rely on the subsidies might sell up and get out. Bigger farmers could then buy the land – the big would become bigger. There would be clear winners and losers”
The UK government has not outlined what financial support farmers could expect if Brexit wins. There is a particular fear of the loss of EU subsidies for farmers. "Without them" says Joe, “many farmers would be thrust into poverty.”
Research group, Farmer Scientist Network (FSN) has similar concerns, "the Treasury could see Brexit as an opportunity to reduce the overall cost of payments to farmers". Despite this assertion, FSN are to remain neutral on the vote. The Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers is also neutral, but Chairperson Mike King said “Subsidies are an important income for farmers. If the UK leaves, it would be important to identify how that could be continued.” If Brexit went ahead, it could bring further uncertainty to the industry already facing difficulty.
"The Treasury could see Brexit as an opportunity to reduce the overall cost of payments to farmers".
Officials at the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, which has responsibility for farming, are divided on the vote. At the National Farmers' Union (NFU) conference last month, farming minister George Eustice spoke in favour of leaving and said "there would be an £18bn a year dividend, so could we find the money to spend £2bn a year on farming…? Without a shadow of a doubt." Mr. Eustice did not outline how this money would be spent, nor did he address the impact of Brexit on trade.
At the same conference, his boss and Secretary of State for farming Liz Truss argued against leaving due to the “significant benefits of the single market, which gives access to 500m consumers", and said it would lead to years of risk and complication.
As well as the potential drop in farmers' incomes, the exchequer would see losses if Brexit went ahead. The majority of the UK’s top twenty trade partners are in the EU and European Economic Area (EEA). In 2014, the UK exported £9.3bn worth of food to the EU and just £3.4bn to EEA and non-EU countries. Though neutral, the NFU published a report on the UK and EU outlining that "if our farmers were not able to compete fairly in the market place with our main competitors, this would have a significant impact on the UK economy."
Some farmers wish to leave the EU to escape regulation. Charlie Flindt, Farmers Weekly columnist and farmer said recently that he resents "the absurdity of EU rules and regulations", and that “being in the EU has done nothing to prevent the worst agricultural crisis in many decades enveloping UK agriculture.” For Joe though, this is not enough of a reason to leave: “to me, there's logic in some of the regulations, like disease prevention – I don’t feel bogged down by it”
"I resent the absurdity of EU rules and regulations...being in the EU has done nothing to prevent the worst agricultural crisis in many decades enveloping UK agriculture."
Unless a full exit from the EU is chosen, the regulations may not go away. Staying in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) or the EEA would require adherence to some EU laws without any input from the UK in their development. Furthermore, protections and subsidies for farmers would not remain. The FSN are pro-EFTA, despite saying it would be hard to secure. But the NFU do not think this would be appropriate because of the lack of input allowed. With the differing and biased information available, the confusion among farmers is understandable.
"I hadn't expected the fear of risk in dairy farmers. The amount of negative change in dairy has led to this fear, but in order to survive, quite a few will need to take risks”
Back in Lancashire, 120 Jersey cows now join the queue to be milked. The Towers chose to face the challenges in their industry and diversify into a new market to survive. Joe now works with Shaun and Rebecca Young of The Estate Dairy – a new company which supplies milk to the speciality coffee industry specific to their needs. The Jersey cows' high-fat and protein milk is perfect for steaming, foaming and latte art. It took 18 months and over 40 farms for the Youngs to find a farmer to work with. "I hadn’t expected the fear of risk we found in dairy farmers" says Shaun, “The amount of negative change in dairy has led to this fear, but in order to survive, quite a few will need to take these risks”
The Towers have been lucky to be able to take this opportunity to future-proof their farm; one which is too expensive for many others. Brexit could lead to the disappearance of subsidies and a drop in trade income and could, therefore, be the tipping point for the dairy farmers currently on the edge of profitability. As Joe says, the small farms may disappear, the big would become bigger; the British landscape and one of the nation’s oldest industries could face one of its most fundamental shake ups.
Copyright text and all images: Polly Dennison
