Wales to Warsaw via Wilton Park: What you need to know

Key points and questions for the Warsaw Summit from our NATO-Russia events.

What next for the relationship between NATO and Russia?

In order to answer this question and propose others for the upcoming summit in Warsaw, we brought together 142 participants from 28 countries with 2 Programme Directors across 2 meetings.


In preparation for the 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw, our 'Defence and Security' policy programme convened the two meetings with the following objectives:

1) Debate potential approaches that would help shape NATO's long term strategy toward Russia

2) Identify key decisions that NATO will have to take at the July Warsaw summit bearing on the evolution of NATO's deterrence and defence posture

To set the scene for you, we have some views from our participants:

What single outcome would you like to see from the Warsaw Summit in July?

So, what are the key wilton park takeaways for the Summit?

1) NATO needs to formulate a new strategy for Russia with a strong, effective deterrence component at its core

2) Unity of the Alliance can only be achieved through a 360 degree approach that addresses threats to Allied security from wherever they arise

3) NATO and its member states need to become more adept in dealing with "frenemies", opposing and countering them in some areas but working together on others where common interests exist.

But, what about the individual meetings?

NATO and Russia: managing the relationship (October 2015)

Outcomes:

1) There appears to be no scope for a "grand bargain" with Moscow without compromising fundamental Western values by allowing Russia to dominate its neighbours against their wishes. A key message to convey to Russia is that countries in Eastern Europe gained their freedom of choice several decades ago and all Allies insist on maintaining this situation.

2) Nonetheless, important differences remain within the Alliance on the nature of the threat from Russia and how to respond to it, both politically and militarily. NATO needs to formulate a new strategy for Russia with a strong, effective deterrence component at its core.

3) NATO must work closely with the EU in order to tackle hybrid threats to Europe. The two organisations should not try to have a formal joint strategy towards Russia but their review processes and strategy formulation on Russia and on hybrid conflict should be run closely together.

4) The Alliance has built its capability over the last years focusing mainly on crisis management. Now it is turning towards collective defence again. The three core tasks of the 2010 Strategic Concept: collective defence, crisis management, and cooperative security, are all critical to respond to Russian assertiveness and aggression as well as to the challenges to NATO's south.


[webpage link]

[meeting programme]

[meeting report]

Podcast:

Participants views:

Rethinking deterrence and assurance
(May 2016)

The meeting :

1) Assessed the political and military dimensions of Russia's strategy for regional coercion and possible war against a NATO member

2) Identified potential escalation dynamics in a Russia-NATO confrontation, especially if Russia should try to escalate its way out of failed conventional aggression with nuclear de-escalation strikes and other means

3) Understood the challenges and requirements of effectively countering Russia’s strategy

4) Identified and explored key decisions that NATO will have to take at the July Warsaw summit bearing on the future evolution of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture, including its nuclear component



[webpage link]

[meeting programme]

Report to be published.

Participants views:

What single outcome would you like to see from the Warsaw summit?