ASEAN + 6: North Korean Nuclearization

Security Council Simulation at Yale

SCSY XL
@SCSYXL

Letters From THe Dias

Dear Delegates,

Welcome to Security Council Simulation at Yale 2017! My name is Linh He, and I am a sophomore in Benjamin Franklin College. It is a pleasure to be working with you all in this year’s Security Council Simulation at Yale. It is my hope that you all finish this committee with a memorable fun, challenging, and educational experience. The North Korean Nuclear Program committee is a particularly engaging one, especially as the current developments relating to the topic renders a global attention- and rightfully so. Response and action towards North Korea’s increasing flagrant militarization must be orchestrated in a way that ensures mankind’s security and global safety. I hope you all are as excited as I am in tackling this crises and situations that will arise in this committee.

In addition to chairing for SCSY, my involvement with YIRA also includes chairing for Yale Model United Nations. Outside YIRA, I serve as one of the Curriculum Design Chairs for Building Bridges, a Chinese, cross-cultural educational program, am Political Chair for Yale’s Vietnamese Student Association, and am an active volunteer for blood pressure screenings in the New-Haven Community. I am planning on majoring in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, and I hope to find the intersection of medicine, science, and global health in my future career.

I look forward to learning more about all of you as we come close to meeting in committee! In the meantime, if you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to email me at linh.he@yale.edu. Best of luck in your preparations!

Best,

Linh He BF’ 20


Dear Delegates,

Welcome to SCSY XL! My name is Zach Glass, and I'm a sophomore in Berkeley College. It's an honor to be serving as chair of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis committee. Here, you will have the opportunity to debate solutions regarding one of the most volatile and consequential crises in present day international relations. In the coming months, we will be updating the our committee blueprints to match these real world occupancies, so be sure to have an up-to-date knowledge of North Korean news come October.

In addition to SCSY, I also chair for YMUN, YIRA’s annual conference for high schoolers. Outside of YIRA, I write for Rumpus, have served as a legislative captain for Yale Dems, and am currently a liaison for the Jackson Institute’s Greenberg Fellows program. I hope to major in Global Affairs.

I’m excitedly counting the days to SCSY XL! Please don't hesitate to reach out at zachary.a.glass@yale.edu with any questions, comments, or concerns.

Good luck!

Zach Glass, BK ‘20



Topic History

General History/Significance:

For years, North Korea’s nuclear and missile development and its export of ballistic missile technology have forced members of the international community to negotiate compromise on the behalf of global security and peace. Those efforts, however, have been abound with shaky periods of crisis and stalemate, making the progress towards North Korea’s denuclearization an exhaustive and intensive one.

North Korea’s active nuclear weapons program can be traced back to the Cold War, when the nation’s leader Kim Il Sung, who ruled from 1948 to 1994, began to mobilize the country in protection from the U.S., using resources from the fellow communist Soviet Union

In response to the fear of a U.S. attack, the nuclear power of North Korea began to grow in the 1950s and continued to do so even after the 1953 ceasefire that ended the Korean War.

While the Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty of 1963 was a step in forging global cooperation in limiting nuclear weapons, North Korea was one of a few countries that had announced that they would not sign the nuclear test-ban treaty. In fact, North Korea continued on its path and got its first nuclear reactor two years later and tested nuclear explosive devices in 2006, 2009, 2013, and twice in 2016.

North Korea’s open, growing nuclear power brewed global concerns. Various sanctions against North Korea's nuclear program were issued by the UN Security Council, including Resolution 1695, Resolution 1718, Resolution 1874, Resolution 2087, and Resolution 2270. While the Six-Party Talks between North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the United States began in 2003 with the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, these talks were abruptly suspended short of any substantial progress in 2009. Furthermore, tensions have continued to rise between North Korea and its East Asian neighbors, often targeting South Korea and Japan due to their proximity. North Korea’s nuclear program has expanded to include full nuclear fuel cycle capabilities and even uranium enriched weaponry.

Current Situation

Introduction:

Threats of another World War. Tangled alliances. Countries heightened in fear by one leader, one country. More than 70 years after its founding as North Korea, the country’s history of global isolation and international embitterment has manifested in its expansion of nuclear arms. Kim Jong-un’s regime decorated by a legacy of military concentration, internal security, accusations of Human Right’s abuse, and deplorable standards of life has propagated hostility and threatened international security. With its presently expanding arsenal of nuclear weapons,

North Korea continuously demands the attention of nations to prioritize their security and compromise on maintaining global peace. The North Korean Nuclear Crisis committee will discuss force a cooperation among nations to explore and analyze ways to respond to North Korea’s growing militarization and nuclear actions, for the existence of mankind may depend on it.

We strongly encourage you to read this document prepared by Fu Ying of the John L. Thorton China Center at the Brookings Institution.

It’s important to have a basic understanding of nuclear political theory to prepare for this crisis. Below are a few terms regarding strategies nations employ in nuclear politics:

Probabilistic threat — to threaten an adversary with the notion that any aggressive action will leave something to chance. An example of this was the “brinksmanship” strategy employed by President Eisenhower in the 1950’s.

Burning bridges — the declaration of a preset course of action, or in simpler terms, an ultimatum: “if the adversary does ‘a’, then we will have no choice but to do ‘b’.” This can be a useful strategy, especially if the ultimatum is harsh, but if a party does not follow through it can lose credibility in the eyes of its adversary.

Rationality of irrationality — This idea applies more to the actions of North Korea. Can the international community be sure that the North Korean regime won’t disregard the well being of its own people and escalate the conflict disproportionately in response to moderate action? Perhaps this is why efforts to halt North Korea’s nuclear program have failed thus far.

Because of the crisis nature of the committee, the dais feels that this summary of the most recent news is a starting point for you, the delegate, to be able to formulate your policy

Relevant news from last 6 months:

In response to North Korea’s imminent nuclear threats, the United States flared further tensions with North Korea following US President Donald Trump dispatching a naval battle group to North Asia and launching a surprise strike on a Syrian airfield.

Soon after, North Korea issued a forceful response to the deployment of a US naval strike group to the region, making it clear the country would extend its use of methods of self defence to counter U.S. acts of aggression.

Nevertheless, the U.S military announced in May 2017 that they deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which has the ability to intercept incoming North Korean missiles and defend the Republic of the Korea. The THAAD system aggravates not only North Korea, but also China, who adamantly opposes the U.S actions and views the system’s proximity to China as a threat to China’s military capabilities. While China’s concern for its military strength seem independent of North Korea, China’s close economic relations with North Korea may pose future U.S concerns. For instance, about 90 percent of North Korea's trade comes from China. In addition, China sends about 500,000 tons of crude oil to North Korea annually and mostly for free. Already, U.S actions against North Korea have incurred consequential reactions from China. With China’s large economic stronghold, China’s retaliatory actions against the U.S have directed the support of countries. In South Korea, while the THAAD provides security to the country, oppositions against THAAD stem from China’s threats to the South Korean economy. For instance, after The Lotte Group, a multinational conglomerate headquartered in Seoul, South Korea agreed to give up a parcel of land it owned to the South Korean government to use as a base for the THAAD system, China shut down more than 23 Lotte Mart Stores across its country and blocked the streaming of K-Pop music and Korean music tours.

On United States’ Independence Day on July 4, 2017, North Korea flexed its nuclear arsenal strength by successfully carrying out its first successful test of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), which reportedly has the capability to reach the United States. The test launch made it clear to the U.S of North Korea’s capabilities to attack should the U.S threaten the country. In the days following Pyongyang's second intercontinental ballistic missile launch the US military detected unusual and heightened levels of North Korean submarine activity and evidence of an ejection test.

Following North Korea’s threat, suspicion from The United States grew, accusing both China and Russia of bearing partial responsibility for North Korea’s belligerent action. Additionally, as the United States continue to take measures against the pressure from North Korea without consultations from South Korea, U.S. relations South Korea has strained.

We encourage delegates to continue checking the news frequently in the weeks leading up to committee, as we will be updating the crisis accordingly.

How these news relate to potential solutions/crises:

Presently, suspicion and aggression between the two countries continue to entail complications between allying countries and in global relations. Tangled associations and retaliatory acts that come with each move made by North Korea have stretched global tensions to the final threads. Given the exhaustive efforts undertaken by countries to maintain both economic relations and national security, questions remain about whether a future of North Korea’s denuclearization is possible. Clearly, a re-evaluation of national priorities in light of compromised global security is required.

Portfolio Powers

As this crisis revolves around an actual issue pertinent in the international political dynamic today, and all delegates represent countries that are most affected by the issue, Portfolio Powers are open ended for this committee. This doesn’t mean anything flies — rather, consider the actions your country would realistically take in response to crises, know your country’s status within ASEAN and the rules and procedures of this body, and be aware of the abilities and limitations your country possesses. In committee, the dais will confirm or deny directives based on their validity in a real-world setting.

Questions to Consider

What is the domestic environment of North Korea?

What are North Korea’s current nuclear capabilities?

What role does economic aid play in the North Korean nuclear crisis?

What do global intelligence organizations project about North Korea’s nuclear future?

What diplomatic strategies can the international community employ to limit North Korea’s nuclear capabilities?

Is military intervention viable?

What security precautions should your country and the international community take?