During his relatively quick rise to power, first as secretary of Democratic Party (PD) and subsequently as Prime Minister of Italian big-coalition government, Matteo Renzi was never reluctant to stir up issues in an unconventional way, mostly by banging his fist on the table and using a rather aggressive political discourse. After all, he is known as the "rottamatore" (demolition man) due to his unstoppable success against his political opponents.
However, in his recent political clash against the European Commission, Renzi might have found an opponent tougher than expected. In fact, in the quarrel with the President of the Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, which went on for the past two months, the Italian demands to Brussels ended up dramatically downsized.
These demands were presented in a document by the Italian Minister of Economy Pier Giorgio Padoan ahead of a crucial visit in Rome by Juncker: more flexible fiscal rules, a powerful boost to growth policies and an increase in the European budget for the migrant crisis which would allow a more equal cost sharing for Rome.
In order to achieve these objectives, Renzi tried to implement the same aggressive tone of his national political strategy: he started verbally last February by attacking “EU's therapeutic obstinacy with austerity” and culminated trying to put his words into action, by threatening to held up a €3 billion deal on refugee fund for Turkey - which he finally agreed – in exchange for excluding immigrations funds from the Stability Pact.
For some, Renzi’s goal appear clear: in his piece for POLITICO Europe, Giuliano Ferrara, founding editor of the Italian newspaper “Il Foglio” claims that this strategy is based on the necessity to negotiate.
“Renzi is a naturally shrewd manipulator. He works for an agreement by launching a preemptive clash that he then uses to lay the ground for negotiations. That is why he has started to raise his voice”
However, the strategy didn't seem to be pay off. In fact, the former Luxembourg Prime Minister replied to Renzi with criticism over "vilifying the commission on every street corner", fueling the tone of the debate to an unprecedented high peak, avoiding to use submissive words or showing any sign of intimidation ahead of his deciding visit in Rome on the 26th of February. The meeting, which was the first one in the country for the new president, was a sort of show down for Renzi to push forward his demands of less austerity and more flexibility regarding public finances.
The outcome of this meeting wasn’t a milestone in Renzi’s political record, since Italy eventually came out empty-handed. No additional flexibility was given to Rome regarding his deficit. Renzi admitted that “the government will use the amount of flexibility that the commission will concede”, which sounded like a resignation of his prior aspirations. Even the tone of the confrontation decreased dramatically when both leaders agreed defining austerity measures “not silly and blind”. As for the refugee crisis, the current negotiation with Turkey shows that a shared solution is yet to come.
In the end, the escalating clash between Italy and the Commission turned out to be a political defeat for Matteo Renzi. Even his attempts of boosting his own government results at the annual meeting of Foreign Press Association were useless: his statements regarding the renewed "economical stability" of the country didn't quite convince Brussels.
In fact, the 2015 Country Report issued by European Commission, ironically on the same date of the meeting in Rome, highlighted that the economic situation for the country is far from being positive. Government debt remains too high, the banking sector is still too vulnerable and more reforms are need for an auspicious rebound.
In light of this data, it seems that Renzi flexed his muscles in vain, not having enough political power to concretely back up his political ambitions. According to Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think tank, Renzi’s reform record is not good enough to claim a better place for Italy when it comes to negotiations with the Commission. It seems that on a European level, Italy is quite isolated and is still too weak to be regarded credible when it comes to demands.
Renzi’s political strategy, which was extremely successful domestically, turned out to be ineffective on the European stage. It is hard to believe that Italian Prime Minister was so naïve to be completely unaware of the possible failure, so probably one of the reasons behind his obstinate attitude has to be found in his attempt to turn the Commission’s austerity measures into a scapegoat for its domestic flaws.
Even though blaming Brussels (or Berlin, alternatively) for its own failure isn't quite original - being a tradition inherited by Berlusconi’s government – nor politically effective, it eventually seems to have rather little positive effect when it comes to polls. On the one hand, in the last few years there has been undoubtedly a favorable tendency towards euroscepticism in Italian voters, represented by the increasing electoral success of anti-european parties. Renzi’s muscular attitude against the Commission may be aimed to swipe votes from anti-european parties like Five Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right xenophobic Northern League ahead of the important local elections in Rome and Naples to be held in June.
On the other hand, the struggle for domestic consensus might be a double-edged sword for the Democratic Party according to the IXE research institute on 5th of February, in the middle of the clash with Commission, trust in government and the Prime Minister bounced back after two weeks decline, while in the last poll - dated 4th of March - it decreased again to its previous level. The numbers show that eventually the boost was only a flash in the pan which didn't pay off.
Nevertheless, the problems still remain on the table, and a bellicose attitude towards the Commission doesn't seem like the way to go to achieve the goal of a less peripheral and marginal place for Italy in Europe. But how can Renzi succeed? How can he create an alternative voice to break the so claimed Franco-German domination?
At the current state of the situation, Renzi doesn't have any real alternative to tough negotiations with his EU partners. Italy is politically isolated when it comes to the issues of austerity measures and flexibility. It lacks a common ground, a synergy, a shared orientation of interests with various important actors over other crucial issues first, in order to have some back up in return.
At this moment, favorable candidates for forming a political convergence are lacking: the United Kingdom is currently dealing with Brexit, while Spain, which is in a similar economic situation as Italy, is facing a political standoff preventing any significant progress regarding foreign politics. Even Greece, whose support on migration policies was considered obvious, as the two countries are at the forefront of Europe's refugee crisis, is stepping out from a possible convergence. Alexis Tsipras is currently in desperate need for some German support over a huge wave of migration and cannot afford himself to drive a new wedge between Athens and Berlin.
Nonetheless, the current refugee crisis can become some fertile ground to lay the foundations for a possible political alliance, and for sure this time, banging the fist on the table is not a feasible strategy to implement. Instead, showing some flexibility on this issue could have a potential positive effect to start a dialogue on asylum seekers quotas, for example with Visegrad countries. Since a deal with Turkey seems currently unrealistic, as well as cutting Greece out of the Schengen area to block the Balkan route, Italy could mediate a possible alternative solution that could at least partly satisfy both stances, in order to receive some help on loosening austerity measures.
Another potential theme on which it could be worth trying to find some cooperation with other countries is a banking union, in order to create a safer and sounder financial sector for the single market, from which a number of countries could benefit. If Italy wants to push its issues in the European agenda, Renzi must put an end to his aggressive political attitude which might end up increasing the country’s political isolation. Only through dialogue, soft power and cooperation he can pursue a multilateral convergence on important topics that could possibly create an alternative political pole to the current hegemonic one.
