Leaving EU would cause a serious shock to UK economy 


#Brexit could cost UK economy £100 billion and 950,000 jobs by 2020 #EUref #Business

"This analysis shows very clearly why leaving the European Union would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth." #EURef

"Findings from the @PwC_UK independent study also explains why the majority of UK businesses are in favour of remaining within the European Union. Even under optimistic assumptions, an exit triggers serious economic disruption." #EURef

FTA scenario

The UK negotiates a free trade agreement with no tariffs on exports and imports between the UK and Europe by 2020. As it is no longer in the Single Market, it experiences a modest rise in non-trade barriers. The UK is assumed to maintain existing free trade agreements with other countries currently held by the EU, and signs a new trade deal with the US.

WTO scenario

Based on the UK failing to secure a deal with the EU and therefore trading under World Trade Organisation rules after leaving. Tariff and non-tariff barriers with the EU rise significantly. The UK loses its existing free trade agreements with other countries, but renegotiates them on the same terms by 2026 and signs a deal with the US in the same year.

#Trade #EURef- If the UK leaves without a free trade deal, 90% of British exports to the EU, by value, could face tariffs. 

#Trade #EURef- By leaving we would drop out of the deals with other countries which we have at the moment & have to renegotiate them from scratch. 

#Regulation #EURef - the post-exit benefits of reducing regulatory costs are likely to be relatively small in macro-economic terms. PwC estimates that economic gain to be around 0.3% of GDP in 2030

#Norway #EURef- if the UK followed the Norway model & joined the EEA, it would keep nearly 95% of the most costly regulations already in place.

#Uncertainty #EURef- There would be economic & political uncertainty around the UK's future relationship with other EU countries if the UK voted to leave. It could be manifested in increased financial market and exchange rate volatility, along with an impact on business confidence.

#Business #EURef- it is hard to see circumstances under which the UK could secure a better set of deals on trade and investment outside the EU. Leaving the EU would hit some of the UK's top sectors hardest. And current global uncertainty means that now could be one of the worst possible times to leave.